Will HD DVD be resurrected in China?
Posted by Philip Wong 1 commentJust when you thought there was finally a closure to the video format war, we've heard more news on the Chinese HD DVD specifications from TG Daily. With the world's largest population backing, the defunct Toshiba-led format will undoubtedly have high hopes for a comeback. CH-DVD uses a combination of HD DVD as well as Chinese proprietary video encoding, copy protection, and technologies.

On a separate note, Toshiba is betting its chips on a new DVD Download/DL standard that promises better picture quality and possible access to Web content. The former is widely believed to be based on the Japanese company's SpursEngine 1000 processor, capable of delivering an enhanced video-upscaling performance than existing DVD players. The download element, meanwhile, will bridge Blu-ray's value-added interactivity features with its supposed live Internet connectivity.

http://asia.cnet.com/crave/2008/07/02/hd-dvd-resuscitated-/

Hope not since I bought PS3

Don't want another war and some how HD DVD wins. That would mean I lost $850

I don't think it will effect anything in the west.


How did you lose $850? A lot to pay for PS3, but also like my HD DVD players, it won't stop working regardless of where Blu-Ray goes, just enjoy.

It would be good just to buy a Chinese player in the future so that we can still enjoy our HD DVD library.

That is why I have two XE1's and an X-Box addon. I would assume in the next few years I would be able to load all these movies onto a media centre via a PC drive anyway.

2 XE1's - that's a bit greedy..., I only got 1 and an EP10 and a GGW-H20L

But, if u have think u are only going to load them onto a PC anyway why 3 players?

tsd

One for the dedicated HT, one for the lounge Plasma, and will use the X-Box via PC to the living room LCD.

The sad truth of the matter is that the general populace aren't interested in high definition of either format, Blu-ray or HD DVD let alone another variant that might emerge.

With DVD so entrenched in the marketplace and with such low prices on software and players any upgrade to a more expensive format is going to be painfully slow.

Finally, unless the Studios back the venture any new competing format that Toshiba might devise is likely to end up like HD DVD.

Toshiba really should promote a newer technology other than the optical format, something the Studios can agree to without all the production problems associated with optical disc .

C.M

Your logic escapes me CM, if as you believe the general population is not interested in HD, why then "should" anyone promote a new technology other than optical ? and of all companies why "should" Toshiba do so, they have licked their wounds and gone back to core business protecting their significant stake in keeping DVD the number one format for as long as possible.

What Toshiba “should” do and look to be doing is run a spoiler campaign to convince the general population that upscaling players are as good as HD and that they should to stick with DVD. Good business sense for Toshiba, bad for us that actually want more REAL HD.

In case you hadn't noticed TiggyF, people are not naturally drawn to products that are more complicated, offer less choice, are more restrictive, have a high hardware investment cost and are more expensive than the product they are using now.

Believe it or not "Better looking", on it's own, its not going to be enough to sway people who don't consider it to be a critical factor, ie the vast majority to people.

Why you think convincing people that HD is worth the time, effort and cost will just happen is beyond comprehension. If you have the answer for how that is done I'm sure they'd love to hear from you.

? what ?

ajm go back and read my post please, all I am questioning is the logic of Toshiba being interested in getting involved an any "new" HD format any time soon given their clear interest in keeping DVD sales as high as possable for as long as possable post HD DVD's demise.

I think what CM is suggesting is that the new format is not optical and with a new more robust format the advantages of that will be easier to sell than another optical format just with higher resolution. It doesn't matter whether you agree with CM or not, but his opinion is valid and a logical argument.

I get the point about protecting the investment but what you seem to be suggesting is that DVD should be it forever if one attempt at an HD format falls over. What I'm saying is that Blu-ray (as the current upgrade path) is a flawed implementation since it doesn't offer the kinds on incentives that most people care about - cheap, easy, fast, flexible etc. It has a niche market and, I believe, can only expect to stay niche. Toshiba then have the choice to get onboard with the format that they do not see the value in, continue with DVD infinitum or explore other avenues.

So my point is, as C.M. suggested, it might be in our interests for Toshiba to investigate alternative HD formats, something that is not an optical format and one that is cheaper to buy, cheaper to use, easier to use, more flexible (or any combination). At least it ought to be worth considering. The current upgrade path doesn't appear to meet any of the needs for the wider community who own DVDs so let's push for one that does.

What you're hoping for I have no idea.

Never said CM view opinion was not valid, just that in my opinion it is flawed.

ajm I know your comprehension skills are very high, so I can assume logically you wish to take this subject in another direction, fair enough, that what happens.

In relation to Toshiba, it is quite clear from even moderate levels of research what their short to medium term strategy is.

1. Develop and promote high quality upscaling players with the "as good as HD" tag. This they hope will have a negative effect on Blu Ray and extend the life of DVD and hence a valuable income stream.

2. Like every one else (Sony, MS, Apple, Amazon, Netflix ........) downloads is perceived as the must be in it tech.

What I do not understand is the thought process, BD is failing (debatable) because people do not want / need / understand / want to pay extra for HD, therefore the answer is to spend huge amounts of money developing another HD format ?

Long term sure 100% there will be a rival system to BD and it will not likely be a disk, but no way will anything other than DVD and Downloads compete with BD at any meaningful level for at least 5 years. I will bet the house on that. I will also bet the house that it will not be Toshiba that takes the next step.

Flawed why? I think what he suggests has some merit. Right now people are not flooding to HD on discs (fact: see Nielsen results). One conclusion could be that people are not that interested in HD. Another could be the pricing is wrong. Another could be people aren't aware. Another could be people don't value the upgrade to HD offers enough to get them to replace SD DVD's.

Now if the last was the case offering them HD on another media format, another price point, easier and more flexible, could possibly get them to jump in. I am not saying CM is right. I haven't done a market survey and found why the numbers are not improving. Like you and everyone else who offers an opinion as to why on here, it is just that, an opinion. But assuming for a moment he is right, then what he say's is logical that Toshiba, and everyone else for that matter including Sony, whould be, and probably would be/are looking at then next way of getting people into buying HD media, or some type of new media so they can make money from it.

Your logic escapes me CM, if as you believe the general population is not interested in HD,why then "should" anyone promote a new technology other than optical ? and of all companies why "should" Toshiba do so, they have licked their wounds and gone back to core business protecting their significant stake in keeping DVD the number one format for as long as possible.

What Toshiba “should” do and look to be doing is run a spoiler campaign to convince the general population that upscaling players are as good as HD and that they should to stick with DVD. Good business sense for Toshiba, bad for us that actually want more REAL HD.

The very fact that Blu-ray has an idenity crisis with consumers as being just another disc format like DVD.

Certainly it offers better pictures (and sound) but it means consumers need to outlay a great deal of money to upgrade to something that returns only a marginal improvement over DVD seen on an average sized screen. DVD is cheap, widely available, can be copied, and make great presents. Virtually everyone has a DVD player and are easily replaced.

Blu-ray is an enthusiast format, a niche market and the longer it proceeds in that manner it is endanger of being overtaken by other technologies that are much more convenient and consumer friendly.

I have a HTPC with a Blu-ray/HD DVD drive and I rent and watch both HD formats on my projector, so I am not diametrically opposed to the adoption of Blu-ray as a format, I use it. It is just that Blu-ray is not going anywhere with consumers.

My local video store has both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs on the shelves and apart from three PS3 users that very occasional take out a BR disc I have been the only one to rent them on a regular basis.

Other customers have asked about these 'new' discs but when they were told a new HD player was required and that of a new HD screen as well, all interest was lost.

You may be enthusiastic for the Blu-ray format to succeed as indeed many of us were for HD DVD but in reality, Blu-ray is just another product marketed by the Studios to make a buck.

C.M

typo's edited

CM, it would seem unless people are reading between my lines that other views I have subscribed to are being brought into this argument. That always makes it had to stay logical. My original point was only about two things, one Toshiba not being the most likly company to be involved in the next HD format, and that if HD take up is low incentive for companies to invest in a new format will be low.

Now to your above post, on many points I agree with you, BD currently is an enthusisats product with it would appear ~ 6% to 8% of the market, it is currently also efectivly stagnent in growth over the past 2 months. Time will tell, or more to the point Christmass 2008 will tell what the real trend is going to be. A point of difference between us would seem to be, is this a problem in the short term, I think no it is natural and HD discs will natuarly be a slow multi year process, others seem to believe it must be quicker than that.

What I personaly do not see is any argument for another HD physical ( disk, flash ....) format to be developed and brought to market any time soon. I also see no evidence that anyone is working on such a system.

Downloads, right or wrong, are what every one in working on as the next big thing and while I supports and use downloads already they are simply just not in BD league quality wise and will not be for a long long time if ever.

And this is the bit I disagree on, and where I think logic needs to be tossed out to a certain degree. Like I suspect you do, I like the disc format of Blu-Ray, and like you I rather have the best possible sound and PQ. But I am not sure everyone and most of the mass market, necessarily are as worried about this as you and I and most posters on here, if they were my wife wouldn't be playing that rubbish IPod music through my stereo speakers. Downloads at 720p with DD sound will suit one hell of a lot of the population, as many will still argue Foxtel looks good, and can't see the difference between the SD and HD channels, and certainly can't hear any difference as they only have the little speaker attached to their sparkly new plasma that has Virtual surround.

And it seems the stock market agrees to an extent that digital downloads are good enough as that is what the buyers want:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/technology/d...5282798357.html

100% with you on the SDL and that very much is my fear, online video as it grows will without doubt go the same way as music, lower quality to save bandwidth and speed up download time. In fact this is already the case while most download sites have "HD" either 720p or 1080i the bitrate is very low
in fact you could almost fit 2 of Apple's HD movies on a standard DL DVD !

Downloads will come, no stoping it, but we need BD or we will go back to SD or "fake" HD

"DiClemente argued that the average profit the companies see from new DVDs, including higher-priced Blu-ray discs, is $US10.59. Selling the same movie through Apple's iTunes online music and video store nets them $9.29, 12 percent less, he said."

this is the real catch 22 with downloads, to be profitable for the Studios they need to expand the market not canibalise it, downloads stealing sales from DVD is just not a good deal for any one except Steve Jobs. The studio gets less money, the consumer gets and inferior product with no phisical backup and one that is almost imposable to transport and use in othet players and other places. This is perhaps the reason why the current push is for downloads as rentals rather than purchase, i Tunes will only rent "HD" not sell.

Well I no longer have any idea what you're arguing for or against here, TiggyF, other than you seem to think Toshiba shouldn't have a roll in the downloads market. Seems we all agree that there are alternatives to optical discs that people find appealing and stand every chance of being adopted as a legitimate form of distribution. Just seems we disagree on whether Toshiba should be involved.

You're looking at the average, per item, cost which and calling it a loss to the Studios but it doesn't account for volume and gives no insight into how big the slice of high priced Blu-ray discs actually is. It's impossible to know if the downloads are impacting on the sale of the much cheaper DVD (which would actually raise the average) or the high priced Blu-ray (which would lower the average). Without knowing what people are spending their money on it's impossible to say whether this is better or worse for Studios.

And you seem to be comparing one product (downloads) with another (better quality HD) and then with a third (DVD). Portability, flexibility and/or the ability to make backups is not a feature of HD on Blu-ray either so I have no idea how you can say iTunes downloads offer "less" in that respect.

Studios have a choice, they can embrace the alternatives distribution methods (and live with the inevitable fact that people will avoid paying whenever they can) or they can keep trying to railroad people into systems that only penalise the people doing the right thing. Surely, by now we all realise that DRMs don't actually work?

Any ideas what said format might look like ?

I dunno but the research proves otherwise. Maybe here in Australia the uptake is lower. But in the US and UK (and lets face it - that is where the market is - Australia is just an after thought) the up take is faster than DVD was.


I can remember in late 1997 I bought a DVD player while I was OS and when I got back here I could not buy discs (or they were ridiculously expensive)and had to import them all.

Also HD uptake in the US is way higher than here with all the PayTv companies having heaps of HD channels.

Just to show I'm not a fanboy.
From THX’s chief scientist - Laurie Fincham who thinks Blu-ray is toast.

Actually that is one of those untrue stories doing the rounds. The first two years of Blu-Ray and all HD formats has not been as large as the DVD sales in numbers.

Purchased MSG4 package + 3 year warranty

Any research proof on that?

Are you saying that the press from the research company Futuresource is 'untrue'?
Futuresource Constulting Press Release Blu-Ray Sale June 2008

Yes I'm saying it is untrue as it's manipulation, they are talking player sales and including PS3's, the actual disc sales is the true measure and its well behind:

Actually adoption rates are probably even worse if you were to try and make an adjustment for the very significant changes in the patterns of technology adoption in the last decade.

I want at least one viable media-based HD format (Blu-Ray by default) to survive so I am not anti BD, but let's be honest, the technology (to a lesser extent) and the content (especially) is overpriced for the market. This is especially true in these financially uncertain times.

Long term, I do not see Blu-Ray reaching ubiquitous status like SD-DVD. It will remain a niche format - just how big of a niche format remains to be seen. The window of opportunity is shrinking and once the current teenage generation (who by instinct and prefernce are predominantly "downloaders") reach their full consumer power (and let's face it they're not insignificant as teenagers!) it will be too late for any media based format in my opinion.

Oh, and I don't believe HD-DVD will be coming back.

Questions I ask myself

1. Is it reasonable to expect BD to have adoption rates = to DVD, DVD was a major step from VHS and would benefit anyone with a colour TV, HD media is a lesser step and one that needs HDTV's and sound systems to shine. It has also just come out of a format war. Given it could be argued that adoption rates are surprising good !

2. Does BD need to become the "new" DVD as far as market domination and time soon, or can it survive as a high-end alternative for several years. For example if BD get to a consistent 10% of market and 12% revenue by the end of 2008 is the success or failure ? 10% of the markets is still big money.

3. What in our view are the "real" major threats to BD, if any, are downloads a threat or are they in fact a threat to SD and cable TV ? Could one outcome be, SD sales impacted by downloads with HD a high value low, sub 20% player.

Another interesting source, I can't remember where I saw it otherwise I would post link.. reports that the German company that actually makes most of the the mass-disc-burning machines for blu ray discs (as used by the Studios / distributors) is reporting that they are currently shipping more of these machines than they did with the DVD burners during the switch-over from VHS to DVD. Maybe we just aren't seeing the same uptake in Australia. Doesn't surprise me, we were running our cars on retreads decades after they were banned elsewhere.

Don't get me started

Mass - disc- burning machines for Blu-ray discs ?

No wonder there is a bottleneck in the production line !...... ...where's thr Brandy !

C.M

Just adding some thoughts:


Perhaps not. Just clearing up the fact that people claim HD formats have grown faster than DVD did in the first two years, which is clearly not true but seems to be an internet "fact" that people roll out from time to time. I don't think any new product similar to an existing one, and especially one that requires a lot of hradware to appreciate, could ever have expected to have the same growth as DVD and it hasn't. But people need to recognise this and not be fooled into thinking it has grown faster than DVD.


Just need to be careful when discussing percentages as the total revenue is falling so 8% today could be a larger number than 10% tomorrow - just worth bearing in mind.


I think downloads are a threat to everything including HD as any product that takes a share of the market reduces the share available.

I reckon this is pretty close to the mark.
U dont need much bandwidth to download say a 704x396 divx and then use an upscaler to watch it (and it looks pretty good) but to download full 1080p u need a lot of GB. It is currently cheaper to buy a HD DVD or Bluray disc off ebay (for me anyway) than download the equivalent.

I dunno about others but after watching 1080p HD I just cant bring myself to buy DVDs anymore I only buy HD discs. So this type of attitude (If Im not just a sick isolated case ) should start to have an effect on sales as well.

Given the choice, I'd rather a movie in HD but I certainly wouldn't limit myself to the fairly anaemic selection that's available.

Rented out 'Rambo' Blu-ray tonight .........Stallone.... dead pan as ever,with entrails in detail everywhere.

Don't you just love high definition ?

C.M

do you ever say anything positive about blu-ray C.M ?

I actually import Asian language DVDs as they generally are not on HD (or are a rediclous price) other than that I rent DVDs and import HD discs (US release schedule is pretty reasonable) - then my disc allowance cash is all gone... If I spent any more the WAF would bottom out...

tsd

Pardon me ! .....What is it to you whether I find a movie enjoyable or not ?

I was not commenting on Blu-ray as a format at all but rather Stallone's boring performance as an actor, I also noticed he directed it. More than likely he is all washed up as an 'actor' and has to produce and direct his own.

For that matter, what is so special about the Blu-ray format that it needs defending ?

It is only an ad hoc disc based delivery system that when it fails to deliver it replies with the quaint phrase...... " You should have known what you were getting into."

There, is that positive enough for you ?

C.M

Hi guys,

I only recently strted looking at blu ray, hd dvd formats becuase I was given a hd dvd version of Blade runner the final cut,(my fav movie) The giver was not aware of the diff between dvd and HD dvd formats, and I only have dvd systems in my home. So since I have been out of the loop for a number of years I started to search the net to see if it was worth me upgrading to the HD media.

I came accross this thread within a few hours and thought my current possition as a typical consumer (not always typical)may be relivent to the debate/discussion.

As mentioned I was not always a typical consumer, I jumped on the DVD bandwagon very quickly, via the PC alternative. It was a quick transition from VHS to DVD throughout the home. I did some resourch via the internet (as I have this time) as to the requirments, formats, county coding, protection, upgrade costs, etc, etc. The decision was rather easy, and I had DVD on my Loewe tv within a week or two for a few hundered dollars. (I ended up with a Sigmadesigns dvd player which lastedme years).

This time is different!! I wayed up the benifits and costs of moving into the HD dvd world (I have experienced the difference, and have a hard time going back to simpl dvd) and have decided not to proceed. The reasons being, that with my current hardware, HDCP card compatibility, ram, price of hd dvd/blue ray drives, etc etc, is just way to much for the benifits. I must point out that I would occupy the same demographic I did when I movied from VHS to DVD, so its not that I my curcomstances have changed over the last ight years, but I dont think the jump from DVD to HD DVD/Blu Ray is as inviting as the the leep from VHS to DVD was. And I am getting that same feeling from other people around me.

In reference to downloading, the average person I come into contact with at the moment, (and everyone has access to movie downloads) is happy with a divx/xvid version of any movies. I personaly can not watch them, and have to wait till I get at least DVD quality, but 90% people I know dont care as long as they see it.

The other factor I see at the moment, in Australia at least, is that many people I know, have just forked out bucket loads to become Digital TV complient!!!!, of which 70% would consists of low resolution plasmas and LCD tvs, not comlpient with HD DVD.

So who wants to upgrade again???? (Not my reasoning though)

If I was forced to state an opinion, I would have to say that the average consumers impression of the HD format is not to be compared to the dvd format. There is much less incentive to upgrade/update/invest in the HD format as there was for VHS to DVD.

Dont hammer me with stats and informative views, I was not looking for an argument, simply presenting an average consumer view (with a history) of current home entertainment alternatives.

Regards

Ozzy

ozzy it doesn't matter if you are hammered with stats, the fact is you are not ready to go HD based on perceived value and cost of upgrade. That is what some people don't seem to get, that stats at the end of the day mean nothing. Tell the average person about 576i, 1080p, 24 fps, DTS HD MA, and the eyes will glaze over, they don't get it and they don't care that they don't get it. They are happy that DVD delivers them what they want and why should they go seek out another format that costs more. It is not like it is being pushed on them so any choice to be sold HD would have to be made by themselves and why is a consumer going to go try to find a way of spending more money when they are perfectly happy with what they have?

<removed>
Plans for 2008-10:
1. Purchase Projector and Screen;
2. Blu-Ray player;
3. Upgrade 5 surround speakers (again);
4. 2 New Subs;
5. Upgrade Receiver;

2010- start again

Are you sure you don't want to wait until 2010?

What are u thinking of getting and why not 7.1 this time?

Bryan

Ozzy, As you might have noticed Blu-ray and HD DVD are really 'BIG' screen formats.

Anything in HD presented on a smaller screen size (although the screen may have the native resolution to resolve the video material) the overall impression is one of "yes, it is an improvement but...."

Screen size does make all the difference, especially when everything else is equal in the comparison, with the visual impact of a larger screen creating a sense of immersion. For such an experience though one really needs to use a projector for that large image size, 720p being the minimum and the best of a compromise between DVD and HD.


For smaller HD panels viewed from a normal seating distance HD video looks to the casual viewer much the same as does a good upscaled DVD. So with that in mind, is it any wonder consumers are hesitant in buying into the HD format ? Let alone the upgrade cost.


C.M

Edited for typo's

Are you suggesting I buy illegal gear?

not at all and I apologise if you took my intent as anything other than a joke

That's okay, just wasn't sure what it meant? Don't worry takes a fair bit to offend me.