Here's an interesting article which analyses the percentage of top 100 films (by box office performance) available to each format:
Of the top 100 2007 (YTD) films, 47 are from Blu-Ray exclusive studios, 14 are HD DVD exclusive studios, 29 are dual-format studios and 10 are not supporting either format currently.
Of the films, 53 were from Blu-Ray exclusive studios, 14 from HD DVD exclusive studios and 33 from dual-format studios. There were no films in the 2006 top 100 from studios that had not declared a format preference.
Of the 2005 films, 47 came from Blu-Ray backing studios, 14 from HD DVD backing studios and 39 from dual-format studios.
OK, so when it comes to “new releases”, things are weighted pretty heavily toward Blu-Ray. Of the top 300 films released from January 1 2005 to present, 147 of them are from studios that are exclusively supporting Blu-Ray currently, and they represent 53.60% of the total grosses. Add in the numbers from the studios that currently support both formats, and you have 248 out of the top 300 films coming out at some point on Blu-Ray, and they represent 89.07% of the total theatrical grosses.
On the HD DVD front, only 42 films are exclusives to the format, representing 10.71% of the total grosses.
New releases represent the overwhelming majority of home video sales, and this is why Universal has been so aggressive in getting newer movies out on HD DVD. This holiday season, however, things will shift even more in Blu-Ray’s favor as many of this summer’s biggest movies like Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean 3 and Ratatouille hit Blu-Ray and not HD DVD. Of the summer’s big releases that will be on HD DVD, the vast majority will also be available on Blu-Ray. In fact, of the top 20 movies released year-to-date only two, Knocked Up and Evan Almighty, are HD DVD exclusives.
Top 100 of All Time:
Still, catalog titles have been huge for DVD and have the potential to do so again for the HD formats. Looking at the top 100 films of all time, 44 are from Blu-Ray exclusive studios (46.68% of total gross), 12 are from HD DVD exclusive studios (12.12% of total gross) and 42 are from dual-format studios (41.2% of gross). The remaining 2 films are from studios that don’t support either format yet (those two films, if you’re interested, are The Passion of the Christ and My Big Fat Greek Wedding).
If we adjust the all-time 100 for inflation, the numbers skew even more in Blu-Ray’s favor, with 57 being Blu-Ray exclusive studios (59.27% of adjusted gross), 11 being HD DVD exclusive (12.24% of adjusted gross) and 30 supporting both (28.49% of adjusted gross). Again, there are two films from studios supporting neither format at this time (1.59% of adjusted gross) - this time, My Big Fat Greek Wedding drops out of the top 100 and is replaced by Duel In The Sun.
While overall it's a fairly compelling argument, it doesn't take into account the "cross releasing" of films by different distributors in other markets.
By The Numbers