752 replies to this topic

[tobes]

momaw, on Jul 17 2007, 12:30 AM, said:

Here's some info.  Your own article states BD50's are more expensive to produce
So the article bases the argument that blu-ray costs the same by comparing (via "phone quotes" - yeah reliable much) the cheapest and least used blu-ray disc against the most expensive HD DVD disc.  It admits BD50's cost alot more.  Well most releases these days are on BD50.

The problem with these figures is 1. the way they were collected and 2. the way they were analyzed.  BD25's are much cheaper to produce now, but in the early days this was not the case.  And this is when most of these BD25's in the market now were released.

I don't really wanna argue with you tobes, so I'm gonna leave my side of it at that.  I just don't agree with the sampling or data analysis used.

Fair enough. The other thing about these figures is they're from February - I'm sure costs of both formats have come down since.

[The_Preacher1973]

Due to a nice bit of PR from the HD-DVD PG , we can get a rough idea of total sales for both formats:

The HD-PG claim that "HD DVD software sales experienced a 20 percent increase in growth" while "Blu-ray software sales were down 5 percent." for Quarter 2 compared with Quarter 1.


Considering that Q1 sales were:
BD 832,530
HD DVD 359,300


We could be looking at the following for Q2 :

BD: 832530 * 0.95 = 791K
HD DVD: 359300 * 1.20 = 431K

The most disturbing thing here is that over the HDM market didn't grow much at all (total market growth = 2.5%). I would have thought it would have been higher than that.

[The_Preacher1973]

Still no data for last week available yet but Grubert over at AVS has used the extra time to compose a summary of the sales of the formats by month. Numbers are '000 units sold.


Total BD    HD-DVD
Q2+3 '06    47     145
Oct '06     21      52
Nov '06     53     107
Dec '06    250     274
Total '06  371     578

Jan '07    239     118
Feb '07    257    122
Mar '07    336     120
Apr '07    184     115
May '07    249    140
June '07   358     176
Total H1  1623     791

So actually if you started graphing sales from April '07, you could show a nice upswing in the HDM market.

[The_Preacher1973]

Numbers are finally out!

Neilsen BRD/HD-DVD Videoscan Numbers for Week Ending 15th July 2007:

Week 61/39
Year to Date 67/33
Since Inception 60/40

Interesting.

HMM didn't publish any best sellers list this week.

[AndrewW]

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 14 2007, 10:10 AM, said:

Neilsen BRD/HD-DVD Videoscan Numbers for Week Ending 8th July 2007:

Week 66/34

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 23 2007, 11:51 PM, said:

Neilsen BRD/HD-DVD Videoscan Numbers for Week Ending 15th July 2007:

Week 61/39

Go HD DVD Go

[The_Preacher1973]

AndrewW, on Jul 24 2007, 06:26 AM, said:

Go HD DVD Go

Like I said. Interesting.

What's the release date of 300? I'm hoping they put out a best sellers list that week to see how it sells on each format.

[AndrewW]

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 24 2007, 08:32 AM, said:

Like I said. Interesting.

What's the release date of 300? I'm hoping they put out a best sellers list that week to see how it sells on each format.

31st of July.

[The_Preacher1973]

A few new titles for Blu Ray released during this weeks numbers while none released for HD-DVD resulted in a big swing to Blu Ray:

Neilsen Sales Figures for Week Ending 22/07/2007

Week 74/36
Year to Date 67/33
Since Inception 60/40

This is the best result for Blu Ray since the week of 18/03/2007 where Blu Ray got 82% of the market.

This weeks issue also carries the story of Target going Blu Ray exclusive on the front page:

Home Media Magazine

EDIT: The "exclusivity" of Target looks like a bit of a croc. It seems they are providing exclusive BR end caps and only selling Blu Ray players in their stores (Sony bdp-s300). Their software section will still carry HD-DVD's as well as Blu Ray).

It doesn't however mention BJ's going Blu Ray exclusive or the new Denon players.

There's a Top Sellers list again this week (yay) which I'll post later when I can be bothered to either type them out or find them in the AVS thread.

Addendum:

New titles that were included in this weeks sales figures:

BD
The Fifth Element (Remastered) (Sony)
Premonition (Sony)
Waiting... (Lionsgate)
Wild Things (Sony)

HD-DVD
Nothing.

To mangle another quote "It's the content stupid."

[The_Preacher1973]

Top 10 Sellers for the WE 22/7/2007

1. Premonition Blu-ray 100.00
2. Casino Royale Blu-ray 60.41
3. Planet Earth Blu-ray 56.41
4. POTCDMC Blu-ray 48.55
5. TFE Blu-ray 45.24
6. Ghost Rider Blu-ray 42.94
7. Planet Earth HD-DVD 39.62
8. POTCCOBP Blu-ray 39.39
9. Apocalypto Blu-ray 39.87
10. Resident Evil Blu-ray 31.79

[The_Preacher1973]

Courtesy of Jiffyflush at AVS:

Releases for the 24th, which will be reflected in next weeks numbers.

HD DVD
The Bourne Identity (Universal)
The Contract (First Look)
Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (Rhino)
The Host (Magnolia)
In Good Company (Universal)
Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps (Universal)
Out for Justice (Warner)
Purple Rain (Warner)
Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (Rhino)
Scent of a Woman (Universal)
Streets of Fire (Universal)
Yes: Live at Montreux (Rhino)

12 releases - 9 exclusive


BD
The Host (Magnolia)
Out for Justice (Warner)
Purple Rain (Warner)
Weeds: Season Two (Lionsgate)

4 releases - 1 exclusive

Based on that I'd expect HD-DVD doesn't lose by as much next week.

[yorac]

Love your work Preach, and appreciate it too

[:)]

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 28 2007, 10:08 AM, said:

Courtesy of Jiffyflush at AVS:

Releases for the 24th, which will be reflected in next weeks numbers.

HD DVD
The Bourne Identity (Universal)
The Contract (First Look)
Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (Rhino)
The Host (Magnolia)
In Good Company (Universal)
Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps (Universal)
Out for Justice (Warner)
Purple Rain (Warner)
Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (Rhino)
Scent of a Woman (Universal)
Streets of Fire (Universal)
Yes: Live at Montreux (Rhino)

12 releases - 9 exclusive
BD
The Host (Magnolia)
Out for Justice (Warner)
Purple Rain (Warner)
Weeds: Season Two (Lionsgate)

4 releases - 1 exclusive

Based on that I'd expect HD-DVD doesn't lose by as much next week.

yummy some nice ones there. will be very much looking forward ! thanks preach  

[tobes]

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 28 2007, 09:16 AM, said:

A few new titles for Blu Ray released during this weeks numbers while none released for HD-DVD resulted in a big swing to Blu Ray:

Neilsen Sales Figures for Week Ending 22/07/2007

Week 74/36
Year to Date 67/33
Since Inception 60/40

I presume that should read: "Week 74/26" - ?

[The_Preacher1973]

tobes, on Jul 29 2007, 12:17 PM, said:

I presume that should read: "Week 74/26" - ?

LOL. Yeah. Quite right. It should be 74/26.

Wish someone had pointed that out before I lost the chance to edit the post.

[RodN]

The_Preacher1973, on Jul 29 2007, 01:00 PM, said:

LOL. Yeah. Quite right. It should be 74/26.

Wish someone had pointed that out before I lost the chance to edit the post.

Once you hit Senior Member preach you'll have that time limit on edits removed

[The_Preacher1973]

For those few waiting to see more slaes figures here they are again.

12 new releases for HD-DVD (9 exclusive) and 4 for BD (1 Exclusive) in this weeks data (see above for titles listing). Unsurprisingly the numbers did improve slightly for HD-DVD:


Neilsen Sales Figures for Week Ending 29/07/2007

Week 66/34
Year to Date 67/33
Since Inception 60/40

This is the 5th best result for BD in the last 4 months.

Top 10 Best Sellers for the week:

1. Bourne Identity HD 100.00
2. Planet Earth BD 59.93
3. Casino Royale BD 49.05
4. Premonition BD 48.89
5. Apocalypto BD 46.20
6. Planet Earth HD 44.57
7. Weeds: Season 2 BD 42.98
8. POTC: COTBP BD 42.63
9. POTC: DMC BD 42.32
10. The Host BD 32.78

ADDENDUM:

From the Top 5 HD-DVD sellers list the sales ratios for the next 3 HD-DVD's are:

** The Contract HD 25.74
** Batman Begins HD 22.74
** The Bourne Supremacy 22.4

Obviously no overall ranking available for those titles as we don't know what (if any) BD titles exist between The Host and The Contract.

As far as player sales growth, it's interesting to see Casino Royale outselling Batman Begins by 2:1.

An item of note is that Planet Earth continues the trend of selling more on BD than on HD-DVD. Perhaps HD-DVD buyers get out of the blocks earlier with their purchases.

Next weeks data should be more interesting in that the big releases for the week (300 and Shooter) were released on both formats. Due to how much better new software sells, this is probably going to be as close to a "format neutral" week as we're likely to see and should provide an insight into the underlying strength of both formats if everybody went neutral.

I'll post the titles associated with next weeks data if I find them when I trawl through the AVS thread later.

[The_Preacher1973]

Here they are. Once again courtesy of Jiffyflush over at AVS:

Releases for the 31st, which will be reflected in next weeks numbers.

HD DVD:
300 (Warner)
Darkman (Universal)
Hot Fuzz (Universal)
IMAX: Blue Planet (Warner)
Planet Earth (US Version) (Discovery Channel)
Sea of Love (Universal)
Shaun of the Dead (Universal)
Shooter (Paramount)

8 releases - 4 exclusive


BD:
300 (Warner)
IMAX: Blue Planet (Warner)
IMAX: Roving Mars (Disney)
Planet Earth (US Version) (Discovery Channel)
Shooter (Paramount)

5 releases - 1 exclusive

The one disappointing aspect of this release schedule is the release of the US version of PE. This will split sales between the two versions and may result in them slipping out of the top 10 thus removing a nice comparator between the two formats.

[momaw]

do you have number of unit sold on bourne identity.  Curious to compare to other big catalogue titles released in the past like the pirates films.

[The_Preacher1973]

momaw, on Aug 4 2007, 11:24 AM, said:

do you have number of unit sold on bourne identity.  Curious to compare to other big catalogue titles released in the past like the pirates films.

Unfortunately not. Neilsen have that data but they only provide it to clients for a fee. The last time we got to see this was back in March when BD was braining HD-DVD. Sony paid a fee to release the numbers to the public. The fact that they haven't seen fit to pay to release numbers again probably says as much about the numbers as we need to know.

[momaw]

Interesting Sales Stats From Amazon

As of now:

Blu-ray

1. 300 Ranked 3
2. Planet Earth Ranked 33
3. Complete Blade Runner Ranked 38
4. Ultimate Blade Runner Ranked 40
5. Fifth Element (Remastered) Ranked 64
6. Pirates Of The Caribbean: AT Worlds End Ranked 123
7. Shooter Ranked 146
8. TMNT Ranked 182
9. Apocalypto Ranked 206
10. Blue Planet (IMAX) Ranked 224

HD DVD

1. 300 Ranked 6
2. Hot Fuzz Ranked 30
3. Complete Blade Runner Ranked 37
4. Planet Earth Ranked 39
5. Bourne Identity Ranked 70
6. Sean Of The Dead Ranked 85
7. Ultimate Blade Runner Ranked 90
8. Heroes Ranked 174
9. Bourne Supremacy Ranked 219
10. Shooter Ranked 264

Looks pretty evenly matched to me.  Don't know if I'd be calling victory to any side based on this.

[The_Preacher1973]

momaw, on Aug 4 2007, 01:18 PM, said:

Interesting Sales Stats From Amazon

As of now:

Blu-ray

1. 300 Ranked 3
2. Planet Earth Ranked 33
3. Complete Blade Runner Ranked 38
4. Ultimate Blade Runner Ranked 40
5. Fifth Element (Remastered) Ranked 64
6. Pirates Of The Caribbean: AT Worlds End Ranked 123
7. Shooter Ranked 146
8. TMNT Ranked 182
9. Apocalypto Ranked 206
10. Blue Planet (IMAX) Ranked 224

HD DVD

1. 300 Ranked 6
2. Hot Fuzz Ranked 30
3. Complete Blade Runner Ranked 37
4. Planet Earth Ranked 39
5. Bourne Identity Ranked 70
6. Sean Of The Dead Ranked 85
7. Ultimate Blade Runner Ranked 90
8. Heroes Ranked 174
9. Bourne Supremacy Ranked 219
10. Shooter Ranked 264

Looks pretty evenly matched to me.  Don't know if I'd be calling victory to any side based on this.

You hit the nail right on the head. Nobody will be calling a winner based on Amazon data alone.

It's not a case though of simply choosing which numbers to look at (Amazon or Neilsen) and choosing to believe the one which suits a persons point of view. The Amazon sales figures are included in the Neilsen numbers. So if you look at the Neilsen numbers you are seeing a much bigger picture than if you simply look at Amazon's. The major retailer missing from the Neilsen figures is Walmart as they refuse to be part of the survey. Estimates put the Neilsen coverage at approximately 70% of the total media market. So while it's not the complete picture by any means, it's the best we have. Also, when total sales for Q1 and Q2 have been released accounting for all stores, the numbers aligned very well with what Neilsen had been showing with regards to market share.

Amazon regularly seems to show the  sales between the formats as much closer than the Neilsen numbers (as do other online retailers such as DVD Empire). All this means is that since they are included in the Neilsen totals, the sales figures from the remaining stores will favour BD more heavily than the Neilsen numbers. It certainly seems that HD-DVD does better online while BD does better in Bricks and Mortar stores.

Also, it doesn't matter whether any of us thinks the Neilsen numbers are representative or not. They are still regarded as the industry standard and many companies make business decisions based around their results. Right or wrong, the Neilsen numbers carry weight.


About Nielsen Videoscan

"Nielsen VideoScan is home entertainment industry's leading source for competitive sales info, tracking point-of-sale data from all channels of video distribution including mass merchants, audio/video retailers, electronics outlets, grocery stores, drug stores, and internet sites."

[momaw]

I guess one could say that it is actually very close (as evidenced by sales ranks) and the large ratio difference is more to do with the market being so small, therefore the ratios are exaggerated.

Simplified example is that any Statistician knows average isn't always the best indicator, hence the usefulness of mean, median and mode and looking at all those stats and there relationship with each other and the data.  Hence, sales ratios alone are not going to be very revealing without all the other data to go with it.

Just a theory of course.

Oh to get the raw data and run significance testing.

As to online verses B&M, with so many B&M openly supporting BD, you would think it would be a priority for HD DVD to get this turned around and you would think results from online stores should be used to convince that sales would be just as good if not better....

[The_Preacher1973]

momaw, on Aug 5 2007, 12:28 PM, said:

I guess one could say that it is actually very close (as evidenced by sales ranks) and the large ratio difference is more to do with the market being so small, therefore the ratios are exaggerated.

Simplified example is that any Statistician knows average isn't always the best indicator, hence the usefulness of mean, median and mode and looking at all those stats and there relationship with each other and the data.  Hence, sales ratios alone are not going to be very revealing without all the other data to go with it.

Just a theory of course.

Oh to get the raw data and run significance testing.

As to online verses B&M, with so many B&M openly supporting BD, you would think it would be a priority for HD DVD to get this turned around and you would think results from online stores should be used to convince that sales would be just as good if not better....

Absolutely. The fact that the numbers can swing for 61 one week to 74 the next definitely suggests the numbers are very small. In fact since I've been looking at these numbers I think the most surprising set of data was the one which showed how little the total HDM Market (HD-DVD+BRD) grew between Q1 and Q2. Both Sony and Toshiba better hope that this isn't repeated in Q3 and Q4. Of course with quality releases coming for both formats over the next 5 months I'd expect to see much better growth for the last half of the year than what we saw in the first half.

That being said, I expected to see signifcant growth from Q1 to Q2 as well. And we all know how that turned out.

[The_Preacher1973]

Here's the top 5 Sellers and their ratios on each format:

Blu-ray
1. Planet Earth 100
2. Casino Royale 81.84
3. Premonition 81.58
4. Apocolypto 77.09
5. Weeds: S2 71.71


HD DVD
1. The Borne Identity 100
2. Planet Earth 44.57
3. The Contact 25.74
4. Batman Begins 22.74
5. The Borne Supremancy 22.40

Much closer spacing with the BD titles. By comparison the HD-DVD titles fall away quite quickly once away from this weeks new release The Bourne Identity. Bodes well for the release of The Bourne Ultimatum either late this year or early next year.

[The_Preacher1973]

A snippet of news regarding the success of "300" before we see the sales ratios:

300 Sells 250K Copies in 1st Week

When you consider how many weeks it took for something like Casino Royal to sell 100K copies, this news is the best thing to happen to HDM and its significance shouldn't be underestimated.

To put this in perspective the combined sales of both versions of The Matrix Trilogy sold 15K copies in their 1st week.

Mark this one down in your calendar. This is the week HDM proved it can be mainstream and profitable given the right material and day and date release with DVD.

It will be really interesting to see the sales ratios not only between the formats, but between this and the 2nd highest selling disc for the week on both formats. We could see the percentage sales of other titles in the top 10 or top 5's down in the single digits. Roll on Saturday!